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Can Democracy Survive AI?
Substack / Oct 04, 2026

Can Democracy Survive AI?

Daron Acemoglu has been returning to a question that I think deserves much more attention: what happens to democracy if AI massively concentrates economic power? Acemoglu is an interesting person to make this argument. H

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Older notes and essays

Substack / Oct 02, 2026
Who Gets Rich From AI?

There is a fairly comfortable story about AI. Models get better. Productivity rises. Intelligence becomes cheaper. Everyone gets richer. I think the first three parts are probably true. The fourth is much less obvious. A

Substack / Sep 25, 2026
Has the Internet Gotten Worse, or Are We Just Getting Old?

a16z recently published a column by NYU professor Ruby Thelot arguing something mildly offensive to anyone over thirty: the internet is probably fine. You’re just getting old. His target is the now-famous idea of “enshit

Substack / Sep 23, 2026
The Skills I Think Matter Most in the AI Transition

I’ve written quite a lot about the skills adults should develop for a world with increasingly capable AI. The reason is simple: I think we’re heading into one of the largest macroeconomic shocks of our lifetimes. Not nec

Substack / Sep 20, 2026
The AI Jobs Panic Already Happened. In 1961.

Sixty-five years ago, America was already asking whether machines would produce more with fewer workers, destroy entry-level jobs, make retraining pointless, and eventually break the link between work and income. They go

Substack / Sep 19, 2026
AI Coding Makes Us Faster. Except When It Doesn't.

There is a particularly good AI experiment from METR that I keep thinking about because it measured something almost nobody measures: whether AI coding tools actually make experienced developers faster. METR: Early-2025

Substack / Sep 17, 2026
AI Is an Exoskeleton for the Brain

I’ve been working in IT and around technology and information for more than a decade. I can clearly see the accumulation. Every year I know more. I recognize patterns faster. I make fewer stupid mistakes, or at least inv

Substack / Sep 16, 2026
The Four Levels of AI Writing

More than half of new articles published online may already be AI-generated. And yet humans still seem to be winning the attention game. A recent Graphite analysis found that AI-generated articles had overtaken human-wri

Substack / Sep 16, 2026
The Biggest AI Risk Is Thinking Too Small

I increasingly think one of the biggest risks in AI right now is surprisingly mundane: spending the next three years building something that isn’t ambitious enough. Everything that used to qualify as a decent software st

Substack / Sep 14, 2026
My 10-Year AI Probability List

People happily put “AI propaganda,” “cyberattacks” and “human extinction” into the same bucket called AI risk , despite these being events with wildly different probabilities and consequences. So here is my completely su

Substack / Sep 13, 2026
Pictiq Can Now Be Written, Not Just Viewed

For most of its existence, Pictiq had a slightly embarrassing problem. It was supposed to be a visual language, but actually writing anything in it required knowing rather too much about GitHub, JSON, internal IDs and th

Substack / Sep 08, 2026
Please Stop Sending Me Your ChatGPT Answers

There is a new internet habit that is beginning to drive me insane. You disagree with someone in the comments. You write a few sentences explaining why. And five minutes later you receive 1,400 words copied directly from